Featured Events

Adapted from an article by Eric Niiler, Feb. 7, 2026

If the planet is warming, many people are asking the same question: Why does this winter feel so brutally cold?

It sounds like a contradiction—but some scientists say it actually makes sense.

One of them is Judah Cohen, a research scientist at M.I.T., who’s been studying how climate change might increase the odds of extreme cold snaps in parts of the U.S., especially the East.

The Polar Vortex: Not Just a Buzzword

Here’s the simple version. High above us, there’s a fast-moving ribbon of air called the polar vortex. Usually, it keeps frigid Arctic air locked near the North Pole. But as the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the planet, that ribbon can stretch, weaken, and start to wobble.

When it wobbles, it messes with the jet stream, the atmospheric highway that steers our weather. The result? Arctic air can plunge south, right into places like the Midwest and East Coast.

That’s precisely what’s been happening this winter. For weeks, bitterly cold air from the Arctic spilled out and parked over eastern North America. At the same time, the West stayed stuck under a warm, dry ridge, bad news for ski resorts and communities that rely on mountain snow for summer water supplies.

We’ve Seen This Before

This isn’t new. In February 2021, a similar polar vortex wobble caused the devastating Texas deep freeze that killed 248 people and left millions without power. Versions of that same pattern reappeared in the winter of 2024–2025 and again last month, bringing blizzards and record cold across the East.

Dr. Cohen says this winter’s pattern is especially unusual.

“These stretching events happen every winter,” he said, “but how long this pattern is sticking around is really remarkable.”

He believes Arctic warming, combined with melting sea ice north of Europe and increased snowfall in Siberia, is feeding extra heat into the atmosphere, setting up the conditions for these cold-air outbreaks.

A study he coauthored in Science last year found that polar vortex stretching has been linked to more frequent severe winter weather in the U.S. over the past decade. New research suggests the wobble may also last longer.

“These line up very closely with what we’re seeing this winter,” Dr. Cohen said.

Not Everyone Agrees

Other scientists urge caution.

Russell Blackport, a climate researcher with Environment and Climate Change Canada, says he’s skeptical that climate change is directly causing these cold snaps.

“These are interesting ideas,” he said, “but when I look at the evidence, I’m not convinced.”

Blackport points to long-term data and climate models showing that extreme cold events are becoming less frequent and less severe overall, even as the planet warms. Since the Industrial Age, Earth has warmed about 1.4°C (2.5°F) on average, mainly due to burning fossil fuels.

“Climate models predicted this decades ago,” he said. “And the long-term observations back it up.”

The Big Picture

Other experts land somewhere in the middle.

Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Center says it’s too soon to pin this specific cold spell directly on climate change—but agrees that warming is reshaping weather patterns.

She points to an unusually warm patch of ocean in the North Pacific that’s creating ripples in the jet stream.

“It’s like flicking a jump rope,” she said. “You create a wave in one place, and it ripples downstream.”

Amy Butler, a NOAA scientist, adds that linking any single cold snap to climate change is tricky. Still, she says the overall trend is clear: cold extremes are weakening over time, even when they still occur.

What Comes Next?

Dr. Cohen expects a brief warm-up as the polar vortex tightens again, followed, potentially, by another wobble and another blast of cold air sometime in late February or early March.

“I’d be watching for one more,” he said.

So yes, this winter’s deep freeze feels strange. And while scientists don’t all agree on the cause, many do agree on one thing: a warming world doesn’t mean the end of cold weather—it means more unpredictable and extreme swings.

And that may be the real takeaway.