Introduction

If you’ve been feeling that our local economy is “ok, but not great,” the November 2025 Regional Economic Indicators support that view. Nationwide, the economy continues to grow, but at a slower pace than earlier this year. The local unemployment rate is 4.3%. Inflation has eased since the 2021–2022 spike, but it remains higher than what we’re used to. Wages have increased, but not enough for many families to feel financially secure. As a result, people are more cautious and selective in their spending, giving more thought to every non-essential purchase.

Some Key Measures of Significance in our Area

This attitude is critical in Southwest Florida, where our economy depends on tourism, hospitality, and discretionary spending.

Regionally, seasonally adjusted taxable sales are down about 8% from a year ago, and the local unemployment level is higher than earlier in the year at 4.3%. Job growth has slowed sharply. We are seeing the following shifts:

1. Leisure and hospitality jobs are shrinking.
2. But education and healthcare jobs are growing.

It appears we are relying less on service jobs focused on our visitors and increasing our focus on year-round residents who work in hospitals, clinics, and schools. Given this trend, it is not surprising that when looking at tourism, a similar result emerges.

• Although passenger traffic through our airports is up compared to last year.
• Tourist tax revenues are higher than in 2024.

But they are still well below 2022 levels. While we’re busier than last year, we haven’t climbed back to the pre-Ian peak

Hurricane Ian remains a big part of the story. Three years later, we’re still short of an estimated 2,500 hotel rooms and rental units on Estero, Sanibel, and Captiva. Fewer rooms mean fewer visitors can stay, no matter how intense the demand.

In addition, due to the drop in the value of the Canadian dollar and to others reacting to President Trump’s actions regarding the tariff dispute with Canada, the number of Canadian visitors has suffered a significant drop.  These factors collectively explain why the 2025 tourist tax income is 22% below 2022, and why many island-dependent businesses feel they are struggling. Indeed, replacing the lost rooms and properties will likely take another 3 to 5 years.

Incorporating the inflation shock from the 2021–2022 price jump in everything from food and fuel to dining out and insurance. While workers saw their paychecks go up, this wasn’t enough to fully offset those increases. When people feel squeezed, they don’t always cancel trips, but they do “trade down”: shorter stays, more meals cooked at home, fewer impulse outings, and one special splurge instead of several. While we might still have a reasonable number of visitors, we are seeing weaker tourist taxes and sales tax receipts because visitors are spending less per day.

Housing is going through its own reset. From 2021 to 2023, home prices across the region soared significantly. But with higher insurance costs, higher HOA fees, and inflation, the total cost of owning a second home here has climbed steeply. These factors have weighed on people’s decisions to purchase a first or second home in recent months. That has significantly cooled the market. The seller’s market of a couple of years ago has cooled, and it now favors buyers in some segments.

At the same time, there is some evidence that full-time residents are “trading up” in the Greater Estero area, buying newer or better-located homes. Growing employment in healthcare and education is attracting more year-round households to the area. This means our housing market is gradually pivoting from seasonal investors to permanent residents whose income is tied to the local economy.

While these trends do not make snowbirds less important, they actually highlight how critical they are. Snowbirds fill restaurants, golf courses, pickleball courts, and concert seats. They support condo and HOA budgets. They donate to churches, scholarships, and nonprofits. When there are fewer snowbirds, or when they stay for shorter stretches and spend less freely, the impact shows up quickly in taxable sales, business revenues, and service-sector jobs.

So, what does this mean for Estero residents?

• First, we should expect a slower, bumpier recovery in tourism than many hoped right after Ian. It’s not just about rebuilding structures; it’s about rebuilding discretionary spending power and confidence among visitors.
• Second, we need to recognize who is driving growth now. Healthcare and education are becoming the anchors of a more year-round economy. That brings different needs: workforce housing, school capacity, medical services, and recreation that make sense for families, not just seasonal visitors.
• Third, seasons are changing shape. Instead of a sudden wave of high-spending snowbirds, we may see a larger base of year-round residents, plus a more modest but still vital seasonal layer on top.

Finally, local choices matter. Where we shop and dine, which nonprofits we support, and how we participate in public discussions about housing, insurance, infrastructure, and rebuilding will shape the next decade. The November indicators don’t signal a crisis, but they highlight several significant changes from the past and a heavy reliance on “snowbirds.”

Local businesses and the community will need to adapt to these trends. By staying informed, supporting local businesses, and engaging in what is happening in our local economy and County planning, we can better understand this transition and adapt to ensure our economy remains strong.

Sources:

FGCU Regional Economic Research Report, https://www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri/files/rei/indicators202512.pdf

FGCU Economic Indicators Dashboard, https://www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri/dashboard/

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