Here’s the November RERI (Regional Economic Research Institute) story in plain language for our Engage Estero audience—what’s moving, what’s slowing, and what it means for residents.

First, a quick reset on expectations: September is always the bottom of our local “heartbeat.” Air travel at RSW dips, tourist tax receipts ease, and taxable sales cool—then we build back toward season. So please don’t compare September to August and worry; the proper comparison is this September versus last September. By that lens, we’re modestly better off: seasonally adjusted visitation is up, tourist taxes are up, and the economy is shifting gears rather than stalling.

Observation #1: Tourism demand is strengthening into the season (passengers +5.2%, tourist tax +5.8%), but local spending momentum is softer (real sales –8% YoY), and job gains have slowed down.

On the demand side, airport passengers across the region are up about five percent year-over-year, and tourist tax revenues have increased nearly six percent so far this year. That’s the “season-building” we hope to see as we head into the holidays. Residents will notice it in small ways—busier restaurants, tighter parking, and more out-of-state plates—but the benefit is clear: it supports local jobs and business cash flow as we transition from the September lull toward the spring peak.

Spending presents a more cautious picture. Seasonally adjusted real taxable sales—think of it as “everyday local spending power after inflation”—are down about eight percent from last year. That’s a gentle yellow light. People are still spending, but they’re focusing on priorities: needs over wants, value over novelty. For Main Street, that means sharpening promotions and adjusting inventory levels. For residents, it suggests a budget that assumes prices will stay sticky even if sale signs reappear.

The labor market is still functioning, just less quickly. Unemployment is higher than a year ago, and net new jobs have slowed down. The industry breakdown is most important for us: leisure and hospitality are down about 2.9% year-over-year, while education and health services are up about 2.5%. That’s a very localized kind of “K-shape.” Our hospitals, clinics, schools, and universities are hiring consistently; our tourism-related businesses are reducing staff or hiring cautiously. If your household income depends on hospitality, now is a good time to cross-train, improve your skills, or look into related roles (guest services → patient services is a real pathway here). If you hire talent for healthcare or education, take advantage of this moment—qualified candidates are searching.

Observation #2: The economy is K-shaped here as well: leisure and hospitality are shrinking (–2.9%), while education and health continue to add jobs (+2.5%).

Housing is in the “recalibration” phase. Inventory has increased from last year’s tight levels, and mortgage rates have fallen from their peaks, but carrying costs (insurance, taxes, HOA dues, maintenance) remain high. Meanwhile, rents haven’t dropped much—partly because longer leases slow the rental market’s adjustment. Here’s the practical takeaway for homeowners thinking about a change: many can cut maintenance hassles without truly lowering total monthly costs. Before you sell to rent (or vice versa), do a full “total cost of housing” comparison: principal and interest, insurance, taxes, HOA or amenity fees, typical repairs, and—if you rent—annual rent increases. Sometimes moving to a full-service community reduces hassle but not expense; other times, downsizing in place does both.

Consumer sentiment is weaker, and it shows in how people behave: fewer large discretionary purchases, more price comparisons, and a ‘wait-and-see” approach to upgrades. That aligns with the sales data and the job mix. None of this indicates a ‘recession now”; it suggests being selective.

One important theme to remember is the vast extent of our seasonal changes. Similar to traffic patterns that shift from calm to congested, our economy regularly shifts from a peak in March to a low in September. Airport traffic, tourist taxes, and taxable sales all reflect this wave. In simple terms, imagine a three-to-one swing between high and low, with about six months of rising and six months of falling. This doesn’t make Lee County more difficult to understand—it just means you need a seasonal perspective to interpret the dashboard correctly.

What should residents do with this?

• Budget with current costs, not outdated rates.Even if mortgage rates decline, insurance and maintenance remain significant expenses. Calculate the total monthly cost before changing the loan term or neighborhoods.
• If you work in or hire within the hospitality industry, diversify your skills now.Front-of-house strengths are applicable to patient access, scheduling, and student services—areas that are still growing locally.
• If you’re a small business, plan your inventory and staffing for the season’s return—but keep a lean baseline.The tourist sector is improving, but the local spending environment is cooler than it was a year ago.
• Focus on the YoY rather than the MoM.A decline month-over-month in September is normal; a better September than last year is significant.

The short version: tourism is fulfilling its role as the season approaches, everyday spending becomes more cautious, the job market is still growing—though at a slower pace—and housing is balancing instead of collapsing. That’s a mixed but manageable outlook for Estero: steady where we need stability (health and education), softer where we anticipate it (tourism shoulder months), and filled with options we can handle if we make the right comparisons and keep our expectations realistic.

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