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Introduction

A recent report from FGCU’s Regional Economic Research Institute indicated that Estero’s economy is still growing, but at a slower rate than in prior years.

Southwest Florida will always have a seasonal pulse, with the peak period running from January through the end of April. Seasonal shifts in the economy make it harder to spot trends.

However, recent information from home purchases indicates a shift away from vacation home purchases toward those buying a home as their primary residence. This is an encouraging sign for businesses and the overall economy, as it will reduce the sharp ups and downs that occur when vacationers leave after only a few months in winter and spring.

What’s Really Happening in Estero’s Economy

1) The national economy feels slow, and people are spending more carefully

The U.S. economy is still growing, but slowly. Prices are higher than people would like, and interest rates—while recently cut—are still high enough that policymakers are being cautious. What matters most for Estero is how people are acting, not just what the data says. Shoppers are more careful and price-sensitive, credit card use is down, which means less impulse spending, and families are prioritizing needs over “nice-to-haves.”

In Estero, while restaurants and stores may still look busy, customers tend to hunt for deals, spend more selectively, and pull back the most during non-peak season.

2) Southwest Florida is slowing but not falling apart!

Regional numbers show a cooldown:

• Taxable sales are down compared to last year
• Unemployment is modestly higher but still healthy
• Job growth has slowed sharply

This isn’t a crisis. It’s more like traffic moving from the fast lane to the slow lane. In slower periods, essential businesses, such as healthcare, repairs, maintenance, and core services, tend to hold up better than purely discretionary ones.

3) The job mix is quietly becoming more stable

One of the most evident signs of change is which jobs are growing and which are shrinking.

• Leisure and hospitality jobs are down
• Education and healthcare jobs are up

That matters because healthcare and education serve residents year-round, are less dependent on the tourist season, and provide steadier paychecks. Over time, that makes Estero less vulnerable to seasonal swings.

4) Tourism isn’t disappearing—but it’s uneven

Tourism is still an important pillar. Airport passenger counts are up, and tourist tax revenue is rising year-over-year

But:

• Some areas are still recovering from Hurricane Ian
• Overall tourist tax collections are still well below 2022 levels

While tourism isn’t dying, it’s recovering unevenly. This is due in part to the lower number of hotel beds available in the area, as many of those affected by Hurricane Ian still need to be rebuilt or refurbished. At the same time, Estero is building several new mixed-use developments (residential and commercial) that are significantly boosting the local economy and the overall “feel-good” vibe.

5) The clearest story shows up in what’s being built

Economic data can feel abstract. Construction doesn’t. The developments referred to above are:

• Woodfield Estero (US-41 & Coconut): A large mixed-use project with homes, shops, offices, a hotel, and public spaces. This will offer year-round daily dining and other commercial services that will appeal to more than just seasonal visitors.
• North of Broadway (formerly “Downtown Estero”) A residential-focused development with some ground-floor shops. This will help more people live in Estero full-time, along with small local services for residents.
• Via Coconut Mixed-Use: This will provide apartments, retail, a church, and a public park. There will be a walkable, local “Main Street” style area meant for everyday life.
• Sports & Recreation Complex (Via Coconut area): A large regional sports and entertainment destination opening in phases. This will offer jobs and spending outside peak tourist season—but also more traffic and infrastructure pressure.

6) What developers are really saying

Taken together, these projects imply Estero is shifting toward more full-time residents and year-round demand—while remaining seasonal.

That brings benefits such as more services, more jobs, and more local spending. But this will come with more challenges, such as:

• more congestion,
• higher demand on roads and utilities,
• greater pressure on public services.

7) What residents can watch out for going forward

It will be essential to keep an eye on:

1. Jobs: Are healthcare and education still growing while hospitality lags?
2. Tourism: Are visitor numbers rising but still below pre-Ian levels?
3. Traffic patterns: Which intersections start feeling busy all day, not just in season?
4. Via Coconut: Does it begin functioning as a significant event and daily-life corridor?

For point 3 above, residents should be aware of the conclusions and recommendations from the 2024 Estero Traffic Study. The results of this were presented on Dec 11, 2025 at the Engage Estero Community Meeting. The YouTube video of the meeting can be viewed via this link: https://esterotoday.com/event/dec2025/

The simplest way to see the shift of the various factors is to compare what used to be seasonal activity with what’s now happening year-round—and ask whether roads, utilities, public safety, and healthcare are keeping pace with the growth. That contrast tells the real story of where Estero is headed.

Conclusions

Taken together, the story of Estero’s economy is not about boom or bust—it’s about transition. The community is gradually shifting from a mostly seasonal, tourism-driven model toward one supported by more full-time residents, year-round jobs, and everyday services. That change brings opportunity and stability, but it also requires careful attention to infrastructure, traffic, and public services to ensure that Estero grows in ways that work for the people who live here year-round.